Sales, The Cone Of Uncertainty!

Every year around this time, which is effectively the end of hurricane season and the beginning of the Nor'easter season here in the mid-Atlantic to Northeast states, the same event happens. A super storm appears on the map that gets our attention for days.  Everyone here near the shore gets a bit of a laugh as the NY news crews show up to #Sea Bright, NJ. They interview the guy who never ages, but always looks old, and who says the same thing every time. Something like "I've known there's been a storm comin’ for weeks, can feel it in my back and behind my knee."  He's designated an expert and perpetuates his credibility for yet another year.

This year is no exception as we wrestle with hurricane #Joaquin and its path. We are on day 6 and the storm is still far south near the #Bahamas and likely headed north toward #Bermuda, then up and out to sea.  

Predicting storms and their path must be a job that sucks. Likely because the prognosticators are "wrong" more often than "right". It seems to me to be a job where your best results will keep you at a "low", to at best, "medium" credibility level with the public.  More likely you are bouncing along the bottom of the credibility curve and only a missed forecast away from anchoring yourself to the bottom.

So I got to thinking about predicting what deals will close in the sales pipeline for my company #Scivantage and how similar it is to predicting the path of storms. Like weather models, we use our collective experience in similar situations to get a feel for where the deals are in the pipe.

I would argue the statistical models in weather prediction are far more useful than those used in sales predictions. I once did a regression analysis on deals in the pipe in the current year against deals in the pipe in prior years at the same stage and duration, much to the delight of my bosses. Unfortunately, the data and analysis provided little in enhanced predictive accuracy (so there's a thumbs up for the weather guys and a thumbs down for sales folks).

On the other hand, in business we get to ask our prospects where we are, and provided we are not in a super competitive situation, should get some important feedback which helps us understand our status. The weather guys though can ask the storms as many questions as they want but the storms just don't talk back and so are at a disadvantage.

Recently, #Yahoo! announced a service that will ping your phone 15 minutes before rain or snow. I am not sure what that does for the user. The sky usually gives a "heads up" that rain or snow are coming long before 15 minutes to "show time." Now if this was a tornado warning I would applaud. The product development jobs at Yahoo! must suck too. I am more likely to get some uptick from sprinkling Pixie dust on the sales pipeline.

Just this past week I heard the folks on the #Weather Channel saying how great the European Model is at predicting hurricane paths. Early in the week it was the only model taking Joaquin offshore. Guess where it's going....offshore. They explained it is because the Europeans have more robust computing than we do here in the states.

Really?  We're behind in computing power? Better tell Santa to reach out to them before he takes off to spread joy to the world.

In the end, no amount of computing power will predict sales any better than the weather.  Largely because we have a human element to selling, buying and closing. Those of you who know me personally know I was part of a deal that was due to close on 9/11/01 and which didn't due the tragic events of the day. Additionally, many know of my story about the buyer I was awaiting a contract from who suddenly passed, it never arrived.

So my options seem few and undesirable.  I can either invest in more computing power, put my lederhosen on or figure out why my back is killing me.

There is no way to predict sales with distance and accuracy which is why the sales cone of uncertainty ends at 90 percent....no deal can advance beyond that until it is closed.

My best, Chris